Bracing for Israel’s Next Gaza Attack

This from my latest in the National:

There were no winners in the Gaza war that Israel launched a year ago today, but no shortage of losers. And failure to address its underlying causes – the economic siege through which Israel, Egypt and the US hope to force Hamas from power, and that organisation’s ability to respond by firing rockets into Israel – means that far from anyone learning the lessons of the brutal folly that was Operation Cast Lead, a repeat may be imminent.

Although it killed up to 1,400 Palestinians and left tens of thousands homeless while losing only 10 of its own men (four to “friendly fire”), one of the world’s most powerful armies failed to achieve its main objective – to destroy Hamas’s military and political infrastructure…

…But a year later, Hamas remains in uncontested control of the territory, and not only retains the capacity to fire rockets into Israel, but has forced Israel to consider releasing 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the captive soldier Gilad Shalit. Operation Cast Lead also cost Israel dearly on the political and diplomatic front. Its senior officials have to think twice before visiting a number of western countries for fear of arrest on war crimes charges, and that even allies such as the US and Britain have urged Israel to investigate the war crimes allegations raised by Judge Richard Goldstone underscores just how sharply the operation tilted international public opinion against Israel. The European Union is now talking of recognising Palestinian statehood based on the 1967 borders, underscoring an impatience with the Israelis unknown during the Ariel Sharon era…

…Tempting as it may be to see the possible Shalit swap as a sign that Israel and Hamas are finally learning to engage and seek a more stable coexistence, that would be a mistake. Having failed to defeat Hamas and then been forced (by Israeli public opinion demanding the soldier’s safe return) to free 1,000 Palestinian prisoners is a bitter pill for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. In the minds of Israel’s hawks, the country’s vaunted “deterrence” would require that Hamas be made to pay a heavy price for forcing the prisoner exchange on Israel. Giving Hamas a second victory by lifting the siege may be too much for them to countenance.

So it ought to surprise no one if, in the weeks and months ahead, there is an increase in Israeli air strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, while efforts to end the blockade are stymied, ultimately provoking Hamas to hit back with its own rocket strikes – opening another round of fighting.

Read the whole thing here