If you think it strange that Ehud Olmert is still prime minister of Israel even after it’s official inquiry into the war found him to be an incompetent shlemiel, that may simply be a sign of the leadership crisis in Israel. That Olmert is a moral and political midget is plainly accepted by an Israeli public that had given him approval ratings smaller than the margin of error even before the Winograd report was published. The fact that he’s still in office after having been found to have recklessly plunged his country into a disastrous strategic defeat in Lebanon is a sure sign that Israel’s political leadership is riddled with moral and political midgets. Olmert may still be there because, to borrow a phrase from Hunter S. Thompson, in a generation of swine, the one-eyed pig is king.
Look at the alternatives on offer: Tzipi Livni, so beloved by the purveyors of political kitsch that love a good yarn, moved in for the kill, urging Olmert to resign so that she could take power while avoiding an election, but wouldn’t go as far as to resign her own post to force a choice — moral courage, eh? And then there’s the Labor Party’s presumptive next leader, Ehud Barak. Yes, that’s right, Mr. Zig-Zag, whose own skittish style helped torpedo the Oslo peace process, and who then spent years dissembling about how he was only trying to “expose” Arafat’s duplicity. Barak who withdrew from Lebanon but forgot to cut a deal with Hizballah or anyone else about what would happen there afterwards. Barak failed last time around, the very idea that he’s having another go reveals a measure of chutzpah. And then there’s Bibi Netanyahu, veritably the Newt Gingrich of Israeli politics — a self-impotant, self-serving right-wing crank with Senator Joe McCarthy’s knack for grabbing the headlines with alarmist demagoguery — and make no mistake, if there was an election now, Bibi would be the frontrunner.
It may be with that in mind — or simply the fact that most of the political class is so comfortable with its current share of power and patronage — that Olmert is surviving, so far. None of the politicians wants to face the electorate, except Netanyahu and the parties of the left.
But the stasis may be finite. That’s because the preliminary report of the Winograd Commission, issued almost two weeks ago now, covered only the first five days of the Lebanon war. It publishes its full report in July. As I wrote at the end of the Lebanon war last August, it was on the last weekend of the war that Olmert issued orders that make him morally culpable for the utterly pointless deaths of more than 40 Israeli soldiers by ordering a ground invasion with no clear strategic purpose having already decided that he would declare a cease-fire within 48 hours. If Winograd was harsh on him over the first five days, it’s only going to get a lot worse when the final report comes out.
(Hopefully that one will ask the question of the extent to which Olmert was following the Bush Administration in extended and escalating the war — even if he waded on his own, it’s clear that Washington was goading him to escalate rather than restraining him, in the hope that he could wipe out Hizballah.)
The idea that from this morbid cast of characters we are suddenly going to a bold push for peace is worse than wishful thinking. Sure, Olmert will make gestures in the months ahead, aimed at distracting the public from his failures, but in truth he is utterly paralyzed, even if he were ever serious about a credible peace process.
The parlous condition of Israel’s leadership, which shows no sign of being transformed for the foreseeable future is one half of the reason why Robert Malley and Hassan Agha argue persuasively that “the idea that negotiations conducted bilaterally between Israelis and Palestinians somehow can produce a final agreement is dead.”
They note in the opening of what is a very important piece, “Its fate was sealed in part because neither side has the ability, on its own, to close the gaps between the positions they have taken. The two parties also lack any sense of trust, but that, too, is not an overriding explanation. If bilateral negotiations have become a fast track to a dead end it is because today neither the Palestinian nor the Israeli political system possesses the requisite degree of coherence and cohesion.”
Neither the Israeli leadership nor the current Palestinian political structure is capable of achieving the internal consensus necessary to revive a bilateral peace process. The only prospect for a two-state solution, then, is if it is imposed by the international community, along the lines of what the UN is currently moving to do in respect of independence for Kosovo. While that remains the only credible path to such a solution, I frankly doubt that domestic politics in the U.S. will tolerate going there for the foreseeable future.
Can I ask what you make of this this report by Laura Rozen that “It’s been strangely underreported in the US press what’s clear listening to Israeli officials, that Israel is anticipating fighting a new war with Hezbollah in the coming year that would if it happens likely take the war to Syria.”
Would seem plausible if Israel were in the political condition to do it, but if such condition existed, it wouldn’t have plunged into last summer’s fiasco. I appreciated your debunking of the immediate US attack on Iran rumors and would be curious about your take on this.
I’m not sure what Israel has in mind for this summer. What would they do differently? And after all, they have their own tourist season to worry about.
Still the IDF is probably itching for a ‘rematch’ and if there are new elections with a Netanyahu-Lieberman coalition they may get one.
Keep in mind, however, that Israel’s biggest advantage during the last war, wasted by mass bombing of civilian areas, was the perception, globally and within Lebanon, that Hizbollah provoked them. Don’t underestimate this advantage as it made it very hard for Hizb to be seen in Lebanon as prolonging the war. Were it not for that they wouldn’t have agreed to U.N or Lebanese troops in the south.
If Israel starts a second war without any provocation- and weapon smuggling really wouldn’t cut it- the politics would turn against them very rapidly. In the past, they could count on a quick military victory to negate the political fallout. Now they can’t.
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“Olmert may still be there because, to borrow a phrase from Hunter S. Thompson, in a generation of swine, the one-eyed pig is king.”
TK
That’s rough stuff.
My feeling is that the Israelis are just upset there wasn’t a clear plan for victory and a clear victory afterward. They have high standards – unlike us Americans. If we are losing, we want to keep fighting until ALL of our teeth are knocked out. It’s the American way.
But Israelis will get over it, and Olmert may just have the time to help them get over it. If Israel keeps getting pelted with bottle rockets (that never seem to hit anyone… interesting how that seems to work), there may yet be another rumble in which Olmert rectifies the recent setback. At that point, Olmert will either get reelected or ride off in the sunset to a hero’s farewell.
From on your expertise of posting this blog which is easier between moveabletype and wordpress blogs?
Would seem plausible if Israel were in the political condition to do it, but if such condition existed, it wouldn’t have plunged into last summer’s fiasco. I appreciated your debunking of the immediate US attack on Iran rumors and would be curious about your take on this.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador in Washington to plan for the assassination of any measures to be taken against the Tehran government “determined” to find an answer, he said.
Khamenei, issued a statement on state television, “American officials kap?ld?larsa some dreams, political or security of any inappropriate action by Iran to know that they have to find a decisive response,” said.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran and accused of terrorism in the cause of attention on Wall Street demonstrations and divert attention from economic woes, arguing that the conspiracy theory does not work and said that would not.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the official news agency IRNA, “Iran is a civilized country, and there is no need to resort to assassination,” he said, and the United States, referring to the “terrorist culture belongs to you,” he said.
In the U.S. this week 2 Iranian, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Washington was accused of making a fair hand Cubeyr’e ??assassination plan. One of the accused, the Iranian al-Quds Force member stated that.
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