As Egypt Goes…

You may have noticed that I don’t update this site much any more — that’s because I’m doing most of my writing on these matters on TIME.com and at the National, and doing my blogging on Facebook and Twitter (follow: @TonyKaron ) I’m not going to update this often, so follow me on those platforms. But for the record, a few of my recent Egypt pieces:

What the US Loses if Mubarak Goes

The revolt that appears to have fatally undermined President Hosni Mubarak’s prospects for remaining in power is a domestic affair — Egyptians have taken to the streets to demand change because of economic despair and political tyranny, not the regime’s close relationship with Israel and the U.S. But having tolerated and abetted Mubarak’s repressive rule for three decades precisely because of his utility to U.S. strategy on issues ranging from Israel to Iran, Washington could be deprived of a key Arab ally with his fall from power.

…the Egyptian rebellion may stand as the ultimate negation of the Bush Administration’s “moderates vs. radicals” approach to the region: Mubarak’s ouster might be a loss for the moderate camp, but it won’t necessarily translate into a gain for the radicals. Instead, it marks a new assertiveness by an Arab public looking to take charge of its own affairs, rather than have them determined by international power struggles. Even that, however, suggests turbulent times ahead for American Middle East policies that have little support on Egypt’s streets.

Egyptians No Longer Tolerate a Dictatorship Backed by the US Because of Israel and Iran

On Saturday, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer asked a guest on his show how al Qa’eda fitted into events in Egypt. The question itself was reminiscent of Larry King a few years back asking Tibet’s spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, to explain yoga….

Fear of Islamists Paralyzes Washington (Time to get over it!)

…Democracy movements are attractive to Washington when they target a regime such as Iran’s, but in allied autocracies, they’re a problem. There’s no way for Egypt to be democratic and exclude the Islamists from political participation. The same is true for most other parts of the Arab world — a lesson the U.S. ought to have learned in Iraq, where Islamists have dominated all the democratically elected governments that followed Saddam Hussein’s ouster. But when the Islamists of Hamas won the last Palestinian elections in 2006, held under pressure from Washington, the Bush Administration literally did a 180-degree turn on the question of Palestinian democracy…

Explaining why the U.S. continues to support Mubarak, the State Department’s Crowley on Thursday told al-Jazeera that “Egypt is an anchor of stability in the Middle East … It’s made its own peace with Israel and is pursuing normal relations with Israel. We think that’s important; we think that’s a model that the region should adopt.”

The problem for Washington is that Arab electorates are unlikely to agree. The democratically elected Iraqi government, for example, despite its dependence on U.S. support, has stated its refusal to normalize relations with Israel. A democratic Egypt, whether led by the Muslim Brotherhood or any other opposition party, is unlikely to go to war with Israel given the vast imbalance in military capability, but they’re even less likely to accept normal ties given the present condition of the Palestinians. And the most secular liberal activists in Egypt reject with contempt the argument that regional stability can come at the expense of their right to choose their government.

Egypt: Obama Caught in a Bind

The Administration is caught in a bind, but it’s more strategic than just moral: Supporting tyrants loathed by their own people but willing to do Washington’s bidding in international matters is a decades-old U.S. tradition in the Middle East, as well as in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The problem with Mubarak is not simply that his methods are at odds with professed U.S. values; it’s that his brittle autocracy appears to have entered a period of terminal decline, with the U.S. potentially on the wrong side of history.

And for old time’s sake, a piece wrote in 2003 on Egypt and Bush’s ‘democracy agenda’

…Democracy in the Middle East and nearby Muslim lands would almost certainly restrain cooperation with the U.S. war on terror. Just look at what happened in Turkey on the eve of the Iraq war: Washington had simply assumed that Ankara would jump into line once the U.S. was on the march to war — after all, the country had been effectively ruled since World War II by generals closely aligned with Washington. But Turkey is far more democratic today, and when it was left up to the elected parliament to choose, the U.S. request to invade Iraq from Turkish territory was declined. And it’s a safe bet that if Jordan and Saudi Arabia had put the matter of their own cooperation with the Iraq invasion to a freely elected legislature, the response would have been the same as Turkey’s….

…The biggest test of the seriousness of President Bush’s commitment to promote democracy will come in Egypt, which is due to hold parliamentary elections in 2005. Egypt is especially vulnerable to U.S. pressure as the recipient of around $2 billion annually in U.S. aid, as its reward for making peace with Israel in 1979. “The great and proud nation of Egypt has shown the way toward peace in the Middle East, and now should show the way toward democracy in the Middle East,” Bush intoned. But if Egypt were a democracy, it’s far from certain that it would still a peace treaty with Israel.

Egypt is a good illustration of President Bush’s point that the absence of channels for democratic political participation in Arab states has helped foster terrorism, which has eventually been exported. Osama Bin Laden may be Saudi, but most of the top-tier al-Qaeda leadership at the time of 9/11 were veterans of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, a militant offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood that turned to terrorism in response to the Sadat regime’s peace treaty with Israel, and found hundreds of willing recruits in Egypt’s middle class and in its officer corps. The Brotherhood, of course, is a far more moderate Islamist entity than Jihad, originating in early 20th agitation against British colonial rule. It enjoys a strong, some say dominant, presence among Cairo’s professional classes, and has eschewed violence. Although its activities are formally banned and it is precluded from contesting parliamentary elections, Egypt analysts suggest it may nonetheless be the dominant opposition force in Egyptian society. The impact of the U.S. invasion of Iraq on Egyptian public opinion has also seen a growing alignment in the views of the Brotherhood and more traditionally liberal democratic opposition groups, around the questions of democracy and sovereignty. Today, the overarching criticism of the Mubarak regime is that it is more responsive to Washington than to its own citizenry, and the internal demand for democratic reform is linked with opposition to, rather than support for U.S. policies….

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88 Responses to As Egypt Goes…

  1. Rachel Golem says:

    So, let me get this straight.

    A “Small minority” of American Jews, convinced the American government to send the President of Egypt twenty dollars a year, per Egyptian and therefore America and Israel are responsible for every bad thing Egyptians did to each other for the last 30 years?

    When Egypt can no longer afford it’s wheat imports and the people starve, are you going to blame Americans and Israelis who know how to grow enough food to feed their peoples?

    When the Sunni Muslims in Egypt start attacking the Coptic Christians, are you going to blame Jewish American Republicans?

  2. hope peace come to home

  3. izmir escort says:

    When the Sunni Muslims in Egypt start attacking the Coptic Christians, are you going to blame Jewish American Republicans

  4. Bill Mark says:

    Egypt is a good illustration of President Bush’s point as you reviews. Such That !!!!

  5. izmir escort says:

    Mr Mark,
    You know the wrong

  6. As you illustrate Tony, It’s on the way their go on.

  7. Gigapod Labs says:

    You have done great jobs, Tony Karon

  8. egypt is great, I used to visited Giant Pyramid.

  9. [url="http://grillgriddle.us"]olar[/url] says:

    People have the right thing to do.

    Voices of people is very important

  10. olaalar says:

    People have the right thing to do.

    Voices of people is important

  11. Tony says:

    Who Spam comment this web again I will report your website to google to be Deindex.

    Tony Karon.

  12. You have done great jobs, Hasan Al Banna

  13. Mike Sucrelto says:

    Who Spam comment this web again I will report your website to google to be Deindex.

    Tony Karon.

    Is This the real ? Tony

  14. Bean Macathy says:

    That’s nice tony karon.

  15. You have done great jobs, Tony Karon

  16. Tom says:

    You have a great jobs……

  17. When Egypt can no longer afford it’s wheat imports and the people starve, are you going to blame Americans and Israelis who know how to grow enough food to feed their peoples?

  18. I am sure that this will be resolve.

  19. izmir escort says:

    Hello Tony,you web site very good

  20. izmir escort says:

    are you going to blame Americans and Israelis who know how to grow enough food to feed their peoples?

  21. Acrylic says:

    Yeah, Egypt already change today!

  22. I found very nice articles about Egypt. Thanks for your articles.

  23. Thank you for your easy to read blog, the middle east has never seen this before. Eventually what is happening in Europe will come to the U.S.

  24. I agree with nyc, things don’t look all that great, but there is hope.

  25. It seems like we are living in a fast changing world.

  26. Here is additional information on antique walking sticks.

  27. Egypt and many other countries are going bankrupt.

  28. Too much greed and not enough natural wealth.

  29. This is a shame for those who don’t have the right information.

  30. aolre says:

    Very good posting, You made some exceptional points and I am grateful for your insight! Thanks for the article

  31. The Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s regime “will not engage in the necessary reforms, it needs to go,” he said. Medvedev, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime “will not engage in the necessary reforms, it needs to go,” stated, such a decision taken by NATO or some other European countries underscored the need. “The Syrian rulers, since the mid-violent popular uprising in March continued to actively work to implement the necessary reforms in this country. If these managers do not make these reforms should go in, but it will have to decide, and the regime of Syrian people, some European countries in NATO or not,” said Medvedev, Russia’s future, a permanent member of UN Security Council, to ensure that the change in the regime of sanctions against attempts to stop the adoption of the Council, he added.
    Russia and China in a few days before the repression of the demonstrations in Syria at the UN vetoed a resolution prepared by the Western countries.

  32. Israel, the Jewish religion which is the most important days of the Yom Kippur (the Day of Atonement), because, 26 hours into “closed”.Jews’ holiest day of the year “and agreed” to be purified of sin, prayer was “Yom Kippur’da, bat???yla starting this evening, the sun, will continue until tomorrow evening, the sinking of the sun as possible, in the country by going beyond the normal daily living conditions, Traffic, televizyonsuz, without radio, al??veri?siz, a day to live away from cafes and restaurants.All of life almost stopped in the country prior to the start of Day Kippur, in the air, on land and at sea before sunset the sun was cut by vehicles. Israeli television, whether public or private has stopped all broadcasts, web sites occasionally, until tomorrow evening to update their sites, they gave announcements.

  33. Northern Iraq Regional Government President Massoud Barzani, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan deducted from his mother’s death was reported due to any condolences.Regional government officials, Massoud Barzani, Prime Minister Erdogan to call them are contained abroad whom he expressed condolences.

  34. Remy says:

    I hope peace will come back there .. It’s so sad ..

  35. just wanna thank you for sharing your information and your site this is simple but nice article I’ve ever seen like it i learn something today.

  36. Egyptian Prime Minister Isam Honor, the role played by Egypt’s mediation in the prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel,

    “The security and stability of the Middle East” showed to Cairo

    “Efforts”, he said a part of.

    Isam Honor, the social networking site Facebook page said, “Egypt, prisoner exchange agreement, which contribute to successful efforts, the region’s stability and security is an integral part of its support for the efforts,” he said.

    Honor, “Stability and security, and equitable global solution of the Palestinian question will take place,” he added.

    Meanwhile, the Arab League, called on Israel release all Palestinian prisoners.

    Arab League Secretary-General Nabil El Arabi, published a statement, in the hands of Israel asked for the release of all Palestinian and Arab detainees.

    Al Arabi, some of the detainees to inhuman conditions for a period of more than 30 years, sometimes without a trial were held in violation of all international laws expressly noted.

  37. Ferry to the port of Bari in Italy from the port of Durres, in Ankara, the Turkish cargo ship owned by the company ‘Reina 1′ collided with.

    22 miles off the port of Durres in accident was related to the explanation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The statement gemisinideki Reina 1 of 2 people rescued, 8 person call the authorities carried out the work reported in Albania, Barbaros the Frigate Navy also reportedly directed the region.

    A description of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: ‘The Embassy in Tirana and the Undersecretariat for Maritime Search and Rescue Coordination Center Home According to information received, of the Durres-Bari Ferry with 189 passengers and plying in Ankara the Turkish flag by a Malta-flagged cargo ship Reina, 20 October 2011 on 02:35 hours at the Port of Durres, some 20 nautical miles off the collided. After the accident, shortly after the sinking, and the entire crew of the ship’s captain and second captain of a Turkish Reina who is liberated, the remaining 8 staff calls the authorities of Albania is still in progress. Ankara ferry was not damaged and the loss of life. Embassy in Tirana has been closely following the work of search and rescue, crisis center established in the city of Durres two staff working at our Embassy. Naval Forces are directed to the scene of the accident at f?rkateynimiz Barbarossa, f?rkateynimiz the early hours of October 21, 2011 by reaching the region, the Albanian authorities will participate in the work carried out search and rescue ‘the statement said.

  38. Amnesty International has overturned the murder of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya, the new administration wanted to open an investigation.

    Claudio Cordone, Director General of the Organization, issued a statement, “Gaddafi, after achieving öldürülmü?se, it would constitute a war crime and those responsible should be removed from the justice,” said.

    Cordone, “New Libya, not revenge, it must be built on the basis of respect for human rights and justice,” said.

    The organization, the investigation of the death of Gaddafi’s son Mutass?m’?n requested.

    On the other hand, the United States, the National Transition Council (UGK) Gaddafi’s cause of death

    “Transparent” waiting for the announced or remove that.

    Minister of Foreign Affairs spokesman Mark Toner, the U.S. administration’s “Prisoners to be treated humanely,” wanted, he said.

  39. Kenya’daki Amerikan Büyükelçili?i, ülkedeki vatanda?lar?na terör tehdidi uyar?s?nda bulundu.

    Kenya birliklerininSomalili askerlerle birlikte a??r? dinci E??ebab militanlar?na kar?? s?n?r ötesi operasyon ba?latmas?n?n ard?ndan yay?mlanan elçilik aç?klamas?nda, Kenya’da ya?ayan ya da bu ülkeyi ziyaret eden Amerikan vatanda?lar?na “al??veri? merkezleri ya da gece kulüpleri gibi yabanc?lar?n topluca bulundu?u yerlere misilleme sald?r?lar? yap?labilece?i” uyar?s?nda bulunuldu.

    Kenya, yabanc?lar?n kaç?r?lmas?n?n ard?ndan Somali’deki E??ebab militanlar?na kar?? Somali askerleriyle birlikte yakla??k bir hafta önce operasyonlar ba?latm??t?

  40. This country moving and need much more democracy.

  41. Bücher top 10 says:

    It’s like a Mexican Wave and seems to spreading across nations. The people are sick of being slaves to the disgustingly rich rulers. The World is in a real mess and the politicians here need to start listening to the REAL grievances, instead of burying their heads in the cosseted and unreal Westminster world

  42. Is this the start of the world turning against there Governments . Mind you they have been getting away with ripping the people of long enough and the people are sick ad tired of it, It had to happen some day. Just waiting for it in the UK and it will come no doubt.

  43. Much appreciated for your kindly share very useful in formations

  44. Jailbreaking says:

    Thanks for the article !
    I’m sure it will be resolve soon, it can’t stay like that !

  45. Mike Macathy says:

    Mike Macathy is here !!!!

  46. Bale emerged as a potential superstar in a breakthrough 2010-11 season in which he won the English league’s Player of the Year award.BOXING DAY ACTIONCheck out all the images from the Barclays Premier League.His talent was already well known in Britain but fans worldwide were given a taste of his pace and power when he ripped apart the defenses of Italian giants AC Milan and Inter Milan in Champions League games.His displays this campaign have been slightly more subdued but he was unstoppable against Norwich at Carrow Road, where he could feasibly have scored four of five times. Bale had seven of Tottenham’s 15 shots in all.

  47. In addition to missing injured Pro Bowl fullback Ovie Mughelli,Turner started to show up on the injury report during Week 12 witha groin injury and has been getting rest during the week. In lossesto New Orleans and Houston, the offense fell behind and turned totheir passing game to stay in the games.Taking note of the low rushing outputs, the coaching staffunderwent a running-game system-check this week. They also want torun should they have to play outdoors in cold weather.”We’re going to be getting on a plane and going somewhere, so wewant to definitely make sure that we have a real good feel for ourrunning game,” coach Mike Smith said.Turner, who had offseason groin surgery, is not one to makeexcuses.”My health has nothing to do with it,” Turner said. “It’s justthe way the games have been going the past couple of weeks.

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